A pollster has numbers about the 2018 election that left the pundits speechless

Pundits are claiming the 2018 elections are set in stone.

Democrats will sweep to victory in the House and make a play to win back the Senate.

But one pollster’s numbers left the Democrats and their allies in the media speechless.

CBS pollster Anthony Salvanto is the head of the network’s polling department.


Under Salvanto, CBS conducts a battleground tracking poll of the 50 to 60 Congressional districts pundits expect to flip in November.

The network’s numbers show Republicans have a strong chance to retain their House majority.

The New York Post reports:

For 2018, the CBS News Battleground Tracker has gathered a panel of nearly 5,700 registered voters. Almost all of them live in the 50 to 60 districts that might switch from Republican to Democrat, or vice versa, in November — the only races that matter, when it comes to control of Congress.

Salvanto’s polling currently indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. “In this era, a district’s voting patterns from the past tend to stay that way,” Salvanto said. “Not as many partisans today are willing to cross party lines.” Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects.

Choosing the 15 percent of districts that could flip is as much an art as a science, Salvanto said, but “there’s already a consensus forming among pollsters on what districts they are.”

Other outlets believe the Democrats are strong favorites to win the House.

538.com’s Nate Silver lists the Democrats as a 73.5 percent chance to take control of the House of Representatives.

That lines up with the available public polling on the generic ballot question of who the public wants to see control congress.


But this is not a national election.

There are 435 individual races that will decide who is Speaker of the House.

And CBS’s tracking poll of the districts most likely to determine which party runs Congress shows the race is much more of a tossup than the media wants to portray.

The Democrats are still favored to have a good November.

But how good is a matter for debate.