Democrats and the media were convinced Donald Trump cannot win a general election.
But the Left got a rude awakening.
And that’s because this top historian hit Democrats with some bad news about why Trump will win in 2024.
Democrats, liberal media activists, and anti-Trump RINOs need to reconsider their priors.
That was the message of leading historian Niall Ferguson who wrote an op-ed for The Spectator declaring “A second Trump act is not just possible. It’s fast becoming my base case.”
Ferguson explained that the vulnerabilities the Left thought would doom Trump with swing voters were nothing Trump cannot overcome.
Democrats waged lawfare in criminal and civil court to disqualify Trump.
Soros-backed Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg indicted Trump on joke charges.
A Manhattan jury also awarded E. Jean Carroll $5 million in damages after finding Trump liable for defamation and battery even though the jury rejected Carroll’s claim that Trump raped her.
Ferguson cited past examples of world leaders winning another term despite facing indictment or criminal convictions as evidence that voters were willing to look past politically-motivated cases.
“Yet the campaign of lawfare against Trump has already started to backfire. This should not surprise us. Consider eight recent cases around the world when a leading presidential candidate or likely prime minister was indicted. Some – Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi and Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim – engineered political comebacks after being barred from politics following a conviction or imprisonment. Others – South Africa’s Jacob Zuma and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu – saw continued political success despite ongoing criminal cases against them,” Ferguson wrote.
Democrats’ lawfare against Trump is only helping Trump in the GOP Primary as Trump raced out to an early polling lead, which Ferguson explained usually leads to victory in a Republican nomination contest.
“Early frontrunners have won Republican primaries in six out of eight competitive races since 1972, when the modern system of primaries was introduced. The two exceptions were John McCain in 2008 and Trump himself in 2016,” Ferguson wrote.
Democrats hoped the lawfare boosting Trump in the GOP Primary would lead to a flawed opponent that Joe Biden would have no trouble beating.
Ferguson debunked that assumption, citing economists’ prediction of an impending recession.
Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush all lost re-election when their opponents campaigned against the recessions they presided over.
Ferguson concluded by noting the historical precedent of American elections means it is likely that Donald Trump will be the next President.
“But the lesson of history is clear – the Republican frontrunner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election,” Ferguson concluded.
Renewed Right will keep you up-to-date on any new developments in this ongoing story.