Bill Gates spent decades positioning himself as the man who could see catastrophe coming.
But then the world watched 7 million people die in a pandemic he claimed to have a plan for.
And now Bill Gates made one terrifying prediction about AI that left Kristen Welker stunned.
Gates Is Sounding the Alarm – Again
On Sunday, Gates told host Kristen Welker that AI is "certainly powerful enough to drive events that, you know, cause a billion deaths."
"There's never been a weapon as powerful as the combination of people with ill intent using the latest AI tools," he said.
It's a striking claim from a man who has been right about technology before.
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It's also a claim from a man who in 2004 predicted spam email would be "a thing of the past" within two years.
And who bet Microsoft's future on Windows phones – and lost the smartphone race to Apple before Microsoft walked away from mobile entirely.
And who published a 286-page book about the future of technology that mentioned the World Wide Web on exactly four pages.
Gates has a gift for prophecy – and a track record that should make you read the fine print.
What Trump Actually Did
While Gates was warning Congress to pump the brakes, Trump was signing executive orders to do the opposite.
In July 2025, Trump unveiled his AI Action Plan – a 28-page document built on one idea: America wins by moving faster than China, not by flinching.
The plan rolled back Biden's AI safety executive order, cleared regulatory obstacles for data center construction, and positioned the federal government as fuel for AI development rather than a watchdog over it.
Trump's June 2026 executive order went further – blocking any mandatory federal approval process for AI models and declaring every restraint a threat to America's lead over Beijing.
If China wins the AI race, a billion deaths become more likely – not less.
The Cold War Lesson Gates Already Forgot
Gates compared the AI situation to nuclear weapons negotiations between the U.S. and U.S.S.R. – as if both sides agreed to slow down together.
That's not what happened.
The Cold War didn't end because America regulated itself into restraint. It ended because America out-built, out-funded, and out-innovated the Soviet Union until the Soviet Union ceased to exist.
Gates told Welker that failing to require AI safeguards across the board is "completely irresponsible."
Nancy Tengler, CEO of Laffer Tengler Investments, had the correct response: "The U.S. needs to win the AI race just as we sought to win the arms race during the Cold War."
She's right.
The Part Gates Gets Backwards
Gates did raise one specific threat worth naming: AI-assisted bioweapons.
He warned that bad actors with access to advanced AI could develop biological weapons far beyond what individuals or small groups could previously manage.
He also insisted that the threat is real regardless of what regulations Congress passes.
But notice what he's actually describing.
The people building bioweapons in a lab in North Korea or a garage in Karachi aren't going to file for an American AI license.
They're going to use whatever models exist.
This includes freely available ones that no domestic regulation can touch.
The only thing standing between that scenario and disaster is exactly what Trump is building: American dominance of the most capable AI, American intelligence with visibility into frontier models, and American technology so far ahead of the adversary that they can't catch up.
Gates is warning about a fire while arguing we should put out the hose.
Trump sees the same fire and is building a bigger fire station.
Sources:
- Lindsay Kornick, "Bill Gates warns artificial intelligence 'powerful enough' to cause 'a billion deaths' if unchecked," Fox News, September 27, 2026.
- "Bill Gates warns AI is more dangerous than Big Tech will admit," The Inquirer, August 29, 2026.
- "Bill Gates warns world unprepared for AI upheaval," CTV News, 2026.
- Rob Spiegel, "Trump Unveils Sweeping AI Deregulation Plan to Counter China," Design News, July 25, 2025.
- "Trump Eases AI Rules to Race China," Model Diplomat, 2026.
- "Bill Gates says only four jobs are safe from AI – but here are 7 other predictions he's made that didn't age well," Tom's Guide, 2026.