Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the polls.
But Hillary Clinton was also leading Trump in 2016.
And Joe Biden didn’t want to look at these numbers showing how wrong the polls are.
2016 saw one of the worst polling failures in political history as the battleground states – specifically in the Midwest – all saw the polls underestimate Donald Trump’s true support.
These errors did not get fixed in 2018, as even though it was a Democratic year, pollsters still got Senate and Gubernatorial races in the Midwest wrong once again by underselling the GOP’s strength.
The New York Times recently released their most recent batch of battleground polling and pointed out what would happen if the state polls in 2020 were as wrong as they were in 2016.
Donald Trump would lead in four of the six tossup states in that scenario.
— Peter Baker (@peterbakernyt) September 24, 2020
Polling errors do not always run in the same direction, and in 2012, the polls undersold Barack Obama’s strength.
But the fact that the polls got the same clutch of states wrong in 2018 that that they did in 2016 suggests that polling in the Midwest is broken.
The Trump campaign has consistently put out a message that their internal polling shows a totally different race than the public polling.
Voter registration data in the swing states also shows Republicans made gains as Democrats shut down their operation because of the coronavirus.
That could point to the polls once again underestimating Donald Trump’s true support.
Renewed Right will keep you up-to-date on any developments to this ongoing story.