With less than 30 days to go before the Presidential election, Democrats are beginning to celebrate.
They think they have the election in the bag.
And Joe Biden was smiling at the latest poll results. Here is why he shouldn’t be.
A brand new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 14 points 53 percent to 39 percent.
But a deeper look inside the numbers found the poll reported sampling just 27 percent Republics and 35 percent Democrats.
Thirty-five percent of poll respondents self-identified as Democrats, while only 27 percent self-identified as Republican, and 32 percent self-identified as Independents, resulting in a survey sample that was Democrat +8, a significantly higher sampling of Democrats than measured in the most recent national Gallup Poll of party affiliation. That poll, (conducted between August 31 and Sept 13), found that 29 percent of Americans self-identified as Republican, 30 percent self-identified as Democrat, and 40 percent self-identified as Independents, resulting in an actual national partisan breakdown of Democrat +1.
In other words, the NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll includes five percent more Democrats and two percent fewer Republicans than the actual national population, for a net oversampling of Democrats of seven percent.
Many Americans do not trust the polls after so many battleground state polls missed Donald Trump’s win in 2016 because they under sampled Trump supporters.
There is no question the media wants a blowout in 2020 and for Donald Trump to go away for good after suffering the most humiliating defeat for any President in American history.
But now the question remains as to whether or not the media is cooking up polls to report the result they want as opposed to accurately trying to gauge the composition of the electorate.
Renewed Right will keep you up-to-date on any new developments in this ongoing story.