Republicans carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024.
Now the Republican Senate seat there is a toss-up.
And Laura Ingraham said Tuesday night what GOP leadership doesn't want to admit – and the numbers back her up.
Iowa Was Supposed to Be Safe
The Cook Political Report just downgraded Iowa's Senate race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-up."
That's the seat Joni Ernst held for two terms.
The seat Donald Trump won by double digits.
The seat Republicans were supposed to hold in their sleep.
Republican Ashley Hinson is running to replace Ernst.
Her opponent is Democrat Josh Turek – a state representative who, according to Hinson, spent the legislative session fundraising in Nantucket with Chuck Schumer's donor network instead of showing up to vote.
https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/2092413164327522627?s=20
Turek missed 58 percent of Iowa House votes this year.
He still leads in some polls.
A Fox News survey taken in late June showed Turek ahead of Hinson by 4 points among registered voters.
Among the voters who said they were most motivated to show up in November, Turek led by 15 points.
Think about that.
The most motivated voters in a Trump +13 state want the Democrat.
Republicans Are Whistling Past the Graveyard
Ned Ryun, CEO of American Majority, sat alongside Ingraham Tuesday night and didn't sugarcoat it.
"Republicans are kind of whistling past the graveyard on some of these Senate seats that they thought were safe," Ryun said, naming South Carolina, Alaska, Iowa, Nebraska, and Ohio as states where the GOP had better wake up fast.
The math is brutal.
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats.
Democrats need a net gain of four to flip the chamber.
Republicans can only afford to lose two before John Thune hands Chuck Schumer the gavel.
Iowa is one of those potential two.
https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/2092414390096019627?s=20
Ryun pointed directly at the Senate's failure to deliver.
"The Senate is thumbing their nose at the base over the SAVE America Act," he said. "Gas is $4.10 a gallon. You know, they're not seeing a lot of the things they voted for. The Iran war is killing us."
Ingraham agreed.
"I think there are a number of states that Republicans better get their act together," she said. "Iowa is one of them."
The Senate Had 50 Votes and Still Did Nothing
Here's what makes Iowa's numbers so infuriating.
The SAVE America Act – Trump's number one priority, the voter ID bill every conservative in America wanted passed – had 50 Republican senators behind it for six straight months.
Fifty votes. A clear majority.
JD Vance standing by to break the tie.
John Thune protected the filibuster anyway.
At a July 30 press conference he told reporters he was "for anything that we can do to get the SAVE America Act passed" – then turned around and confirmed he didn't have the votes to end the filibuster blocking it.
Senators voted the bill down on August 8 and left town for a five-week recess.
This is what Ingraham has been warning about since last fall.
She told Senator Roger Marshall flat-out: "Y'all gonna get wiped out" if the Senate didn't ditch the filibuster and deliver results.
Marshall said it was a big decision and he needed to sleep on it.
He slept on it.
Iowa is now a toss-up.
History Doesn't Care About Excuses
The party in the White House loses, on average, 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats every midterm cycle.
Every cycle. Like clockwork.
Republicans in 2018 lost 42 House seats.
https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/2092405613854646502?s=20
The rare exceptions came when voters believed their president was fighting for them against genuine opposition – not when a Senate majority had 50 votes in hand and still found reasons to stand down.
That's not what Iowa conservatives feel right now.
They gave Republicans a Senate majority, a House majority, and the White House.
The Senate spent the year guarding a procedural rule that Democrats themselves nearly abolished in 2021.
These are the same senators Iowa voters stood in line to elect.
They got their mandate.
They got their majority.
And when Trump asked them to use it, Thune counted votes and went on vacation.
Ingraham just told the Senate exactly what's coming.
The question is whether anyone in that chamber was listening – or whether they're already busy protecting the filibuster they'll need once they're in the minority.
Sources:
- "Fox News Poll: Close Senate Contest Brewing in Iowa," Fox News, July 1, 2026.
- "Iowa's U.S. Senate Race Between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek Ticked Toward a 'Toss-Up,'" KCRG, August 21, 2026.
- "Fox's Laura Ingraham Warns Republicans to 'Get Their Act Together,'" Mediaite, August 25, 2026.
- "Laura Ingraham Tells Senate Republican, 'Y'all Gonna Get Wiped Out' in the Midterms if GOP Keeps Filibuster," Mediaite, November 2025.
- Senator John Cornyn, "Why the SAVE Act Matters More than the Filibuster," New York Post, March 11, 2026.
- "The Founding Fathers vs. The Filibuster," The Gateway Pundit, August 2026.
- "2026 U.S. Midterm Elections," Britannica, 2026.